A lot of recent speculation has Daniel causing the infamous "incident" ... but what do we know of this incident?

We have two conflicting sources of info regarding even when it happened: the Swan orientation video (dated 1980), and the Blast Door (BD) map (with multiple refs to the "incident of 1985") ...

Which is correct? Can BOTH possibly be correct (I guess assuming diffferent timelines?)?

This has been bothering me since I don't know when, but it bothers me still ...

Is this a production error, or a clue?

More importantly, what the hell is AH/MDG?

Many sources on-line say it is "Alvar Hanso/Magnus DeGroot" ... and I must sheepishly admit I bought into that for a while ... until I realized there is NO Magnus DeGroot! There's a Magnus Hanso, but no Magnus DeGroot ... doh! Others have suggested it means Mittelwerk/DeGroots. But not so sure about that either ...

Keep thinking it means something more in line with the story ... perhaps "Abandoned Hatch / Magnetic Disturbance Generated" or something along those lines.

Alas, that doesn't fit with what's on the blast door ... "Caduceus Station believed to have been abandoned due to AH/MDG incident of 1985" (uh, why repeat "abandoned" then?), or "Believed to have divested from project in 1985 following AH/MDG incident - but could be #6"

Just doesn't seem likely that "Abandoned Hatch" could be the "AH" based upon those two BD entries, does it?

So, what WAS the AH/MDG incident of 1985? Is this "The Incident," or is that something else? Hmm ... One more BD entry: "Multiple escape conduits blocked after incident" ...

This leads me to be believe this is THE Incident ... but what was it? And did it really happen in 1985? Or 1980? Or does it depend upon who's timeline we are following? Will the BD notations suddenly change in a future epi to show the incident in 1980?

I am confused ... but mainly, I'd like someone out there to speculate on what AH/MDG could possibly stand for ... short of Mittelwerk/DeGroots ...

Can't help but feel it means something more close to home than that ...

Just maybe, if we can figure out what it *really* stands for, the rest will follow ...

ealgumby:

I thank you for your memory! Mine stinks.
I'm tracking with you here...If we know what the Incident is everything else will fall into place.

I like "magnetic disturbance generated" especially since we have witnessed what I would call a magnetic disturbance being generated.

AH???? There's Jughead laying around...does it stand for Atomic Hydrogen? Ok...that's a stretch. But TPTB introduced Jughead for a reason.

What caused the magnetic disturbance we saw? Failure to push the button. When did it start having to be pushed? Was the button created in response to "The incident"?

When Desmond turned that key, what did it do that eliminated the need to push the button?

Was the FDW the ancient method of something or other and the thing that got turned off with Desmond's turning of the key the refined modern method of the same something or other?

Whatever the button was doing, it seems there was no need for it prior to 1954. Jughead appeared and the need for the button followed.

Did Dharma Initiative harness the power of Jughead? I don't see how it could if the power is inert. I confess I am not well versed on the harnessing of hydrogen energy, but I do know that something is needed to detonate that bomb. It's not sitting there on simmer is it?

And if it exploded...the island would be gone and its inhabitants would all be dead or at the very least, radioactive fall out would have made survivors very sick. Unless it was buried and exploded deep under the surface.

So I guess what I'm pondering is: Is Jughead associated with The Incident?

Random thoughts pertaining to this:

Radzinsky was very concerned about the “Hosties” finding where the Swann was being built and other specifics possibly including layout and its purpose. He felt so strongly about this he was ready to kill Sayid and break the truce.

According to the Swan Orientation film, the Swan was originally a laboratory "Where scientists could work to understand the unique electromagnetic fluctuations emanating from this sector of the Island".


When Sayid first visited the Swan he tried to find a way past a concrete wall, and told Jack that "The last time I heard of concrete being poured over everything in this way was Chernobyl."

quote:

Originally posted by Joshanda:
When Sayid first visited the Swan he tried to find a way past a concrete wall, and told Jack that "The last time I heard of concrete being poured over everything in this way was Chernobyl."

I completely forgot about that! I think it's safe to assume that the concrete is encasing Jughead...in so far as it is possible to assume anything on LOST.

quote:

Originally posted by undaunted:
ealgumby:

I thank you for your memory! Mine stinks.
I'm tracking with you here...If we know what the Incident is everything else will fall into place.

I like "magnetic disturbance generated" especially since we have witnessed what I would call a magnetic disturbance being generated.

AH???? There's Jughead laying around...does it stand for Atomic Hydrogen? Ok...that's a stretch. But TPTB introduced Jughead for a reason.

What caused the magnetic disturbance we saw? Failure to push the button. When did it start having to be pushed? Was the button created in response to "The incident"?

When Desmond turned that key, what did it do that eliminated the need to push the button?

Was the FDW the ancient method of something or other and the thing that got turned off with Desmond's turning of the key the refined modern method of the same something or other?

Whatever the button was doing, it seems there was no need for it prior to 1954. Jughead appeared and the need for the button followed.

Did Dharma Initiative harness the power of Jughead? I don't see how it could if the power is inert. I confess I am not well versed on the harnessing of hydrogen energy, but I do know that something is needed to detonate that bomb. It's not sitting there on simmer is it?

And if it exploded...the island would be gone and its inhabitants would all be dead or at the very least, radioactive fall out would have made survivors very sick. Unless it was buried and exploded deep under the surface.

So I guess what I'm pondering is: Is Jughead associated with The Incident?

Dauntless, spurred on by your thoughts, I did endless (okay, 30 minutes or so) research in an attempt to link nuclear energy to magnetism. I could find nothing specific enough to form a Lost plotline. I did learn all sorts of other interesting things, however.

I do believe will return to play a part. It was not without reason that Sawyer mentioned Jughead to Richrd while talking on the bench. It was a bomb reminder to us.

Probably my final entry on this thread, but wanted to leave a few thoughts ...

I am now convinced there were two "incidents" ... the first in '80, and the second (AH/MDG) in '85.

My rationale is simple ... the Swan button-pushing only began after the first "incident," thus placing Kelvin/Radzinsky in the hatch to paint their masterpiece BD map on their down time. They were there originally because of the first incident ... and reported the AH/MDG incident only years after being in place (and going mad enough to start drawing silly maps/comments on a "hidden" door!).

So what was the first incident? Something violent enough to collapse "escape conduits" between the stations, damage the power generation station at the Swan (this info admittedly via the video game "Lost: Via Domus" which is not canon, but seems to fit what is), leading to its probable encasement in concrete and the need for the button-pushing, and "Possible catastrophic malfunction of Cerberus system." Hmm ...

What could cause such damage? Previously I have leaned toward the volcano theory ... but noW leaning toward the Jughead theory (as much as it technically doesn't make sense in the "real" world). I have a completely unsubstantiated theory that Rousseau's "crater" on the island is a Jughead blast crater, rather than a volcanic one ... perhaps Faraday goes rogue and decides to blow Jughead up in some vain effort to save future Charlotte?

At any rate, such a blast (especially if marginally-realistically decreased in yield due to lack of fusion fuel) would not "destroy" the island ... it is simply too big. Instead, it would create a huge crater, and shake the crap out of the island ... consistent with the first incident.

After this blast and subsequent induced damage, Dharma keeps things going for a while via the Swan/button-pushing to "vent" excess energy, released from a fissure running to the Orchid/well "exotic matter" locale. I will suggest Faraday goes down in the blast, ala Slim Pickens in Dr. Strangelove ... hence Hawking's lack of concern upon hearing Desmond's message in LA ... she knows he's already nuked himself into oblivion.

The other tangible effect of the blast is to "release" Smokey from its captivity beneath The Temple. We have seen no evidence of Smokey in the flashbacks, prior to the Rousseau interaction ... the blast also produced "Cerberus vents" from which it was able to escape. Everything changed on the island after that ... leading to the AH/MDG incident.

Lostpedia says "AH" mean Alvar Hanso ... so what does MDG mean? I have several thoughts:

Michigan DeGroots
Military Decommissioning Group
Mutinied Dharma Group
Magma Dome Growth (back to the volcano idea ... perhaps induced by Jughead's detonation)

Also thought of (in fun):

Mentally Deranged Giant (did Smokey animate the statue?)

Also thought of, given the penchant for Latin use on the island (and the BD map!):

maiorem Dei gloriam ("the greater glory of God")

As an aside, I also note that in Latin AH is commonly used for Annus horribilis (the horrible/terrible year).

Finally ... couldn't help but think maybe AH stands for "Annie Hanso" instead of "Alvar Hanso" ... do we know who Annie's parent's are? Perhaps Alvar mounted an "incident" to get his daughter off the now-unfriendly isle.

At any rate ...

I suspect the '80 incident will be the detonation of Jughead by Daniel, and the '85 AH/MDG incident will be the effective evacuation/end of the DI.

JHMO

This is all I have to say on this topic until we get more info ...

Just a few quick notes to add to ealgumby's post:

It's possible that Pierre Chang loses his left arm in the first incident, which places its occurrence in the '77-'80 timeframe. (As an aside, we know have two arms & an eye separated from their owners...)

As far as I know, no one knows anything about Annie other than she's Ben's doll-carving buddy (obviously the Dharma Initiative was enlightened enough to have the girls taking woodshop). Some people have speculated (per Lostpedia) that Annie is Penny, but I think that Annie is older than Penny by a decade or so.

A way-out speculation: MDG is Magnus de Groot, Gerald & Karen's son, named after Alvar's ancestor. Magnus has special abilities like Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaalt, which Alvar attempts to exploit & things go awry.

Smokey has been referred to as the island's security system (by CFC Danielle, I think)...& isn't Cerberus the dog the dog that guards the way to the underworld in Greek/Roman mythology? So does Smokey=Cerberus=Vincent?

Yes, Cerberus is the three headed dog that sits on the bad side of the river stix, preventing the dead from leaving and the living from entering. he was a bad bad dog.

For sure, there's more to Vincent than meets the eye. But then I think to myself...Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
______________________

AH = acid hazzard
artificial horizon
ad honorem

This message has been edited. Last edited by: undaunted,

quote:

Originally posted by ealgumby:
So what was the first incident? Something violent enough to collapse "escape conduits" between the stations, damage the power generation station at the Swan (this info admittedly via the video game "Lost: Via Domus" which is not canon, but seems to fit what is), leading to its probable encasement in concrete and the need for the button-pushing, and "Possible catastrophic malfunction of Cerberus system." Hmm ...

What could cause such damage? Previously I have leaned toward the volcano theory ... but noW leaning toward the Jughead theory (as much as it technically doesn't make sense in the "real" world). I have a completely unsubstantiated theory that Rousseau's "crater" on the island is a Jughead blast crater, rather than a volcanic one ... perhaps Faraday goes rogue and decides to blow Jughead up in some vain effort to save future Charlotte?

At any rate, such a blast (especially if marginally-realistically decreased in yield due to lack of fusion fuel) would not "destroy" the island ... it is simply too big. Instead, it would create a huge crater, and shake the crap out of the island ... consistent with the first incident.

After this blast and subsequent induced damage, Dharma keeps things going for a while via the Swan/button-pushing to "vent" excess energy, released from a fissure running to the Orchid/well "exotic matter" locale. I will suggest Faraday goes down in the blast, ala Slim Pickens in Dr. Strangelove ... hence Hawking's lack of concern upon hearing Desmond's message in LA ... she knows he's already nuked himself into oblivion.

The other tangible effect of the blast is to "release" Smokey from its captivity beneath The Temple. We have seen no evidence of Smokey in the flashbacks, prior to the Rousseau interaction ... the blast also produced "Cerberus vents" from which it was able to escape. Everything changed on the island after that ... leading to the AH/MDG incident.

I suspect the '80 incident will be the detonation of Jughead by Daniel, and the '85 AH/MDG incident will be the effective evacuation/end of the DI.

I tend to agree that the bomb at some point blows. I won't re-write everything you did in support. The bomb is just sitting out there, patiently waiting for the writers to explode it.

My only challenge is the lack of evidence of radiation poisoning. Those old bombs were dirty. An explosion would rain radiation everywhere, poisoning the air and water for years to come. The impact on inhabitants would be dramatic (see Hiroshima and Nagasaki). We just don't see that.

I think if jughead explodes it will have to happen after 2004 because there is no evidence it exploded prior to that. An explosion of that magnitude would have left a hell of a crater and (as you point out,PC)the radioactive fallout would have had devastating effects on the island's inhabitants.

here is a clip of the effects of a 5 megaton h-bomb which was exploded 6000 underground

hbomb